Could El Niño deliver the next inflation shock? In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Kamil Kovar, Denise Cheok, Jeemin Bang and Deni Kasa to examine how a potentially powerful El Niño could affect food prices, inflation and monetary policy across Asia Pacific and Europe. The team explores the risks to rice and other key commodities, the potential for drought and water scarcity to disrupt food and energy production, and how export restrictions could amplify price pressures across borders. They also ask why Europe, historically relatively insulated from El Niño, may be more vulnerable this time as weather disruption intersects with higher energy and fertilizer costs, geopolitical tensions and increasingly fragmented global supply chains. With some Asian central banks already alert to the inflation risks, could El Niño become another in a series of overlapping supply shocks, keeping inflation higher and interest rates elevated for longer?
Could El Niño deliver the next inflation shock? In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Kamil Kovar, Denise Cheok, Jeemin Bang and Deni Kasa to examine how a potentially powerful El Niño could affect food prices, inflation and monetary policy across Asia Pacific and Europe.
The team explores the risks to rice and other key commodities, the potential for drought and water scarcity to disrupt food and energy production, and how export restrictions could amplify price pressures across borders. They also ask why Europe, historically relatively insulated from El Niño, may be more vulnerable this time as weather disruption intersects with higher energy and fertilizer costs, geopolitical tensions and increasingly fragmented global supply chains.
With some Asian central banks already alert to the inflation risks, could El Niño become another in a series of overlapping supply shocks, keeping inflation higher and interest rates elevated for longer?