With the U.K. continuing to confound expectations, Gaurav is joined by David and Andrew to assess a run of surprisingly resilient growth data and ask whether the economy is finally breaking out of its recent pattern of strong starts to the year followed by weak finishes. Consumer spending and business investment have both held up well, but rising energy prices, a soft labour market and slowing real wage growth still pose threats. The team debates the inflation outlook, whether markets have become too hawkish on Bank of England rate hikes, and whether another round of tax hikes is looming in October’s budget.
With the U.K. continuing to confound expectations, Gaurav is joined by David and Andrew to assess a run of surprisingly resilient growth data and ask whether the economy is finally breaking out of its recent pattern of strong starts to the year followed by weak finishes. Consumer spending and business investment have both held up well, but rising energy prices, a soft labour market and slowing real wage growth still pose threats. The team debates the inflation outlook, whether markets have become too hawkish on Bank of England rate hikes, and whether another round of tax hikes is looming in October’s budget.